Plenty of excitement today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing over 15,000 intraday for the first time and the S&P 500 closing above 1600 for the first time, so let’s get to it…
The S&P 500 first hit 1500 back in March 2000. As I just mentioned, today the S&P crossed over 1600 for the first time. It was a long and adventurous road to go from 1500 to 1600. Let’s hope the next 100 points come a bit easier.
With the impressive rally the stock market experienced in the first quarter, we have been watching closely for signs of a pullback much like the market has experienced the last three springs. By and large most of the key indicators have continued to paint a bright picture for the markets. The Labor Department’s jobs report was strong today with a gain of 276k, including upward revisions to February and March. The market loves the current conditions. The economic data is good but not great, which means the Federal Reserve has no reason to slow down their stimulus efforts. This has been the recipe that has been so successful in the last couple years. Of course market conditions can change on a dime and there is no shortage of economic struggles across the globe, which could come to the forefront at any time.
Speaking of indicators, J.C. Parets at AllStarCharts.com is pointing out the current rally has been broad-based, with a high majority of stocks in a technical uptrend. From J.C.:
“This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages. It is very difficult for the market to have any kind of sustainable decline when a high percentage of stocks are trading above their 200-day, and therefore in uptrends.”
The chart shows the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are trading above their 200 day moving average, with the S&P 500 itself below. You can see that the last two market pullbacks have occurred when the percentage of stocks above their moving average have plummeted. Today, this indicator is showing the market rally has broad support with over 88% of stocks in the S&P 500 over their 200 day moving average.